Maharashtra Elections - Post Counting Predictions: "It is going to be a shitshow"

I am the guy who called the Loksabha part of Maharashtra right. Check my post history.

I was going to make my post about another prediction but there is something sinister planned by BJP which I need to post here.

  • There is a reason why counting was set up on 23rd.

26th is when the term ends on existing Vidhansabha. So the time that is provided for parties to form the government is 2 days only. It is done by BJP in a very sinister way.

  1. If BJP turns out to be the biggest party, then governor is happy. he will call them in to form government. Easy peasy.
  2. If BJP doesn't turn out to be in position to form the government, governor is not going to call in any party to form the government. Governor will let the term expire by 26th and then establish the presidents rule over Maharashtra. Governor+BJP+President will not lift it till BJP buys and bribed the MLA's from the other side.

#2 is more likely of the outcome. I will post my predictions below but that is not important. My numbers say #2 has likelihood of 89% happening.

  • Laadli Behena Scheme is a shitshow

I am not saying people are not receiving the money. They are. The problem is, the pollsters are polling mostly from the big cities and have zero visibility outside of the cities. Now here is why IMO exit polls are mostly wrong.

  1. When we conducted polls in the city, we saw people talk about how the scheme is going to help below poverty line women to gain more purchasing power
  2. But when we conducted polls in the rural Maharashtra, we saw women were pissed. They were fine with receiving the money. But then ALL of them were complaining about the overall inflation that the money does nothing to them. This we saw everywhere in rural Maharashtra.
  3. If the scheme favors, it will favor only Shinde and not to BJP and Ajit Pawar. The messaging by Shinde was done well that the little goodwill the laadli behena scheme will achieve will lean towards Shinde's Shivsena and not towards BJP and NCP-Ajit
  • Lack of Modi Factor and stuff that hurts BJP
  1. The NDA vote share always dips after Loksabha election in Maharashtra. and it will dip again this time. Fadnavis is the most hated person in Maharashtra and still he wants to become CM.
  2. When Fadnavis tried to backstab Tawde the day before the election, that sent a strange message to rest of Maharashtra and people went out of the way to vote against him.
  3. Being with Ajit Pawar has always been counter productive for BJP.
  • Overall Prediction of Seats
  1. MVA (162)
    1. INC (59)
    2. NCP-SP (52)
    3. SS-UBT (45)
    4. Others (6)
  2. NDA (122)
    1. BJP (72)
    2. SS-Shinde (32)
    3. NCP-Ajit (17)
    4. Others (1)
  3. Independents (4)
  4. MNS (0)

TL;DR:

BJP will have most seats but no majority.

Governor will not invite anyone to form the government

Presidents rule will be activated over the state

This will buy BJP the time to do horsetrading.