Why you don't need to worry about Trump

Controversial take: You don't need to worry about Trump. I say this because, in the end, he is totally ineffective at creating lasting change. Look at his first term. He ran on replacing Obamacare, he had a Republican House and Republican Senate in 2017, he couldn't get it done. Eight years later, he still has no plan. Ineffective.

He ran on stopping fentanyl from flooding into the US in 2016. Fentanyl overdoses increased throughout his first term, and afterwards, despite all of his tariffs and threats. Fentanyl overdoses are at all time highs today. Ineffective.

He ran on stopping illegal immigration, he spent billions building a wall, and illegal immigration increased as soon as he left office. Ineffective.

He promised in 2016 to eliminate the $19 trillion federal debt within 8 years. The federal debt was $27 trillion at the end of his term, and stands at $36 trillion today (eight years later). Ineffective.

He promised in 2016 to fix the trade deficit in the US. The trade deficit was roughly $500 billion per year in 2016, it was roughly $626 billion per year in 2020, at the end of his term, and it is almost $1 trillion per year now. Ineffective.

He has spent the last month polluting the waters with executive orders that span from comical (reinstating plastic straws), to sad (pardoning people who assaulted police), to unconstitutional (ending birth right citizenship). The problem with executive orders... the courts get to intervene (they have already blocked multiple of his orders), and all of the orders can all be undone on day 1 of the next administration with the stroke of a pen.

Trump proved himself to be very incapable of getting significant legislation passed during his first term. He is currently doing a great job of crashing consumer confidence and setting the stage for rising inflation. I'd give him at least a 75% chance of losing the House in 2026, and possibly a chance of losing the Senate if he alienates enough people. He's lame-ducking himself because he's incapable of cooperating with others. All of human progress over the last 200 years was founded on destroying authoritarianism and international cooperation. Trump is but a speedbump on the path of human progress.

The one thing he's done very well is increasing his net worth on paper via scams like $DJT and his meme coin. And just like his executive orders, those will evaporate into history with no lasting change.